Moody's Analytics and Allvue launched the EDF-X Private Credit Model, which Moody's describes as its first model calibrated directly on observed private credit performance, using anonymized borrower data contributed by Allvue under contract so no individual firm can be identified. The model separately estimates the likelihood of hard credit events such as missed payments and of the soft events that often come first, such as covenant waivers and payment in kind arrangements. It is available now to customers of both firms through the Moody's Analytics EDF-X API.
Our readPrivate credit lenders and investors get an early warning signal for unrated borrowers calibrated on the asset class itself rather than on public company proxies, for monitoring, manager evaluation and allocation. Moody's publishes no accuracy, backtest or validation results with the launch.